Surging Forward: Renewable Energy Forecast to Fuel 55% of Power Needs in 2024

According to advanced predictions from the Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) and the Federal Association for Energy and Water Management (BDEW), renewable energy sources are poised to satisfy approximately 55% of gross electricity consumption. This reflects a notable boost within Germany, with the renewable electricity quotient rising by two percentage points in 2024 as opposed to the previous year. The statement by BDEW highlights that the significant growth in power production from photovoltaic and offshore wind energy largely drove this favorable change, more than balancing the adverse weather conditions for harvesting green power. Additionally, power generation in Germany, according to rough estimates, slightly dropped by 2.4% from 500.5 TWh to 489 TWh. Conversely, the total power contributions derived from renewable sources amplified from 269.9 TWh to 284 TWh.

How Do We Measure Green Power Share: Gross Electricity Consumption or Production?

The BDEW supports the practice of quantifying the share of green power in the overall electricity consumption, which is a standard calculation basis shaped by European directives and aligns with the Federal Government's renewable energy expansion goals. Gross electricity consumption captures the complete electricity network of a country with preliminary computations for 2024 standing at just below 512 TWh, previously 507.8 TWh in 2023.

Alternatively, the proportion of renewable energy could be measured against the total power generated within Germany, including amounts allocated for export. For 2024, the renewable energy share based on total electricity production tallies up to an impressive 58%, up from 54% in 2023.

The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems routinely adopts a distinctive perspective, picturing green power production against net electricity production otherwise known as the "power mix from the socket." The resulting ratios can differ significantly. For instance, in the first half of 2024, Fraunhofer ISE reported a green power ratio of 65%, contrasting with the 58% derived by BDEW and ZSW methodology.

Insufficient Sunlight, Excessive Wind, but a Surge in Solar Power

A year characterized by below-average solar irradiation coincided with an aggressive scale-up of photovoltaic performance. Record-breaking increments of around 17 GW this year, following 15.3 GW in the previous year, pushed up the rate of solar energy harvesting, despite modest weather conditions. For the first time, photovoltaic technology generated more than 10 TWh in each of the three summer months—June, July, and August, manufacturing a total of 72 billion kWh, up from 59.8 TWh in 2023.

Wind energy continues to hold its ground as a core element of the German power matrix, according to the newest green power statistics. Onshore wind power at 115 TWh maintains its status as the powerhouse fuel source in the energy mix, even though onshore wind power production slightly fell by roughly 3% to 118.1 TWh. Experts largely attribute this to the comparably weak wind conditions in the last quarter offset by particularly favorable conditions in the same period of the previous year.

Contrarily, energy generated by offshore wind farms surged significantly, swelling over 11% to roughly 27 TWh, up from 24.0 TWh in 2023. This jump attributes to the addition of new facilities in 2023 and 2024 and reduced regulations.

Hydropower enjoyed a positive turn in 2024, thanks to an exceptionally wet year, leading to a 10% rise in power production and thus padding the green power share with 21 TWh, up from 18.8 TWh in 2023. Power generation from biomass dipped marginally from 49.1 to 49.0 TWh, inclusive of the biogenic proportion of municipal waste.

Better Control of Solar Energy Feed-In Needed, Counsels BDEW

"We have been able to reach such a high quote with a new record which shows how successful the expansion of renewable energy is in Germany," asserts Kerstin Andreae, Chair of the BDEW Executive Board. She appreciates the fact that "renewable energy sources continuously cover more than half of the electricity consumption." Along with the growth of renewables, however, come significant challenges, such as the need for additional grid expansion, underscores Andreae.

The Crucial Need for Action in the Field of Photovoltaics

There is a compelling urgency to address the issues surrounding photovoltaic power generation. If we continue to allow unchecked solar power feeds, there might be instances when we will be forced to disconnect certain network segments during times of low power consumption on sunny days. To prevent this, we must implement measures and regulations that can ease the strain on power grids during periods known as "injection peaks." However, this should be done without slowing the progression of utilizing renewable energy.

"In the interest of hastening a solution, amendments to the energy industry law need to be passed as swiftly as possible," urges Andreae. The ongoing expansion of solar power is starting to make waves in the market as well. The year 2024 marked not only a record in renewable energy use but also a record in negative electricity prices. This often culminates in an electrical surplus experienced during Easter and Whitsun.

Domestic Production: A Strategy Worth Betting On

Professor Frithjof Staiß, Executive Board member of the Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research in Baden-Württemberg (ZSW), commends the production of green electricity as a meteoric success. At the same time, he is campaigning for an increased focus on domestic production of solar and wind energy facilities.

"It must be pointed out, especially considering the high installation rates of photovoltaics, that we have not yet managed to reduce our heavy reliance on foreign supply," said Staiß. He refers to the recent grant call from the EU Commission under the Innovation Fund as a promising opportunity. The fund has earmarked €3.4 billion for key areas of the Net Zero Industry Act, including the expansion of wind and solar equipment production. "We should seize this opportunity," Staiß pleads.

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