Realistic Market Outlook Emerges After an Optimistic Start to RE+

The recent RE+ tradeshow in Las Vegas highlighted both optimism and realism within the clean energy sector. Attendees expressed confidence that renewable energy — particularly solar power paired with battery storage — will continue to expand, even in the face of federal policy uncertainties. Yet beneath the positive outlook, experts cautioned that some markets are positioned to grow faster than others, and final guidance on federal rules will be key to understanding the full impact on the industry.

One noticeable trend was the smaller presence of residential solar installers at this year’s event, likely due to companies focusing on completing projects before changes to tax credits take effect. Analysts anticipate that the residential market could face challenges in 2026, with solar energy growth slowing and potential double-digit declines on the horizon.

Shifting focus to state-level renewable energy policy

Industry leaders stressed the need to reduce reliance on fluctuating federal incentives. Current strategies are shifting toward three areas: strengthening support for battery storage systems, expanding advocacy at the state level to accelerate renewable energy adoption, and encouraging domestic manufacturing to build more resilient supply chains.

While some policy changes create uncertainty, energy storage projects have been relatively shielded from the most significant disruptions. Many expect state programs and incentives to play an increasing role in driving local solar and battery storage deployment, ensuring communities benefit from reliable renewable energy resources.

Compliance challenges for battery storage projects

New sourcing rules may restrict access to federal tax credits for projects that rely heavily on imported components. Since battery cells make up a large share of system costs, domestic cell production will be essential for projects to qualify for incentives. At present, U.S. manufacturing capacity remains limited, which could prevent many large-scale storage projects from accessing benefits. However, if more producers transition to supplying the stationary storage market, conditions could shift quickly.

Solar panel supply chain gaps remain

The United States currently has sufficient panel assembly capacity to meet domestic solar energy demand through 2030. However, upstream components such as wafers and cells are still primarily imported. Some developers are meeting domestic content requirements by using balance-of-system components, but this has sparked discussions on whether the U.S. could eventually face oversupply and potentially evolve into a solar panel exporter.

Utility-scale solar delays already visible in 2025

Although most utility-scale projects typically come online late in the year, installations in 2025 have already shown a marked decline compared to previous years. Analysts project that overall capacity additions could finish slightly lower than in 2024, with long-term forecasts showing a significant reduction compared to earlier expectations. Approval delays for land use and transmission infrastructure continue to add uncertainty, particularly for large renewable energy projects.

Long-term solar and storage outlook remains strong

Despite near-term headwinds, optimism remains a defining feature of the renewable energy industry. Demand for solar energy and home as well as grid-scale battery storage continues to climb, driven by rising electricity needs from data centers, electrification, and consumers seeking more resilient energy solutions. While short-term growth may slow, the long-term trajectory of renewable energy remains strong, with solar and storage expected to be central pillars in meeting future energy goals.