Renewable Energy Capacity Projected to Surpass Natural Gas by 2029

Recent data released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), analyzed by independent observers, indicates that solar and wind energy are leading the growth in the United States’ electrical generation capacity. In the first four months of 2025, solar and wind accounted for nearly 96% of new capacity installations, with solar alone contributing over 87% in April — continuing a 20-month streak as the dominant source of new additions.

According to FERC’s “Energy Infrastructure Update” covering data through April 30, 2025, approximately 2,284 MW of new solar capacity entered service in April, representing 86.7% of the month’s total additions. Between January and April, solar installations reached 9,451 MW, making up 77.7% of new capacity, while wind energy added 2,183 MW (18%). Natural gas additions during the same period totaled just 511 MW, and oil contributed 11 MW.

As of April 2025, utility-scale solar and wind now represent a combined 22.8% of the total U.S. generating capacity — 11.0% from solar and 11.8% from wind. These figures do not include small-scale solar systems, such as residential rooftop installations, which are estimated to account for an additional 25–30% of national solar capacity. Including these would elevate the share of solar and wind to over 25% of total capacity.

When all renewables are considered — including hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%) — renewable energy accounts for approximately 31.8% of U.S. utility-scale capacity, factoring in small-scale solar would raise this to roughly one-third.

Looking ahead, FERC’s projections for “high probability” capacity additions between May 2025 and April 2028 suggest that solar will continue to outpace other sources, with 90,158 MW expected. Wind follows with 22,793 MW, while modest growth is anticipated in hydropower and geothermal. Biomass is forecast to see a slight decline. Natural gas is projected to add 5,730 MW during the same period, while coal and oil capacities are expected to contract.

Adjusting for differences in capacity factors—59.7% for natural gas, 34.3% for wind, and 23.4% for utility-scale solar—the energy output from new solar installations is projected to be at least six times greater than that from new natural gas capacity. Similarly, new wind additions are expected to generate more than twice the electricity as gas.

By May 2028, solar is forecast to represent 16.6% of total U.S. utility-scale generation capacity, with wind contributing 12.6%. These figures are projected to exceed those of coal (12.2%), nuclear (7.3%), and hydropower (7.2%). If current growth trends persist, utility-scale solar capacity is expected to overtake both coal and wind within two years, becoming the second-largest electricity generation source after natural gas.

At the same time, renewable energy continues to gain ground at an estimated rate of two percentage points annually. Based on this trajectory, by early 2028, renewables could make up 37.7% of the nation's total utility-scale generating capacity, narrowing the gap with natural gas, which currently stands at 40.1%. Solar and wind alone are anticipated to represent more than 75% of the installed renewable capacity.

When small-scale solar installations are taken into account, total solar capacity in the U.S. could surpass 300 GW within three years. This would position total renewable energy capacity at around 40%, while natural gas could fall to approximately 38%.

Furthermore, the development pipeline over the next three years includes a potential 224,426 MW in net new solar capacity, alongside 69,530 MW in wind, 9,072 MW in hydropower, 202 MW in geothermal, and 39 MW in biomass. Natural gas, by comparison, is projected to see only 26,818 MW of potential additions. These figures indicate the renewable share of total capacity could rise even more significantly by mid-2028.

Despite evolving policy discussions that may impact the sector, current data suggest that renewable technologies are positioned to continue gaining market share. If growth remains on track, utility-scale renewables may surpass natural gas as the leading source of generating capacity in the United States by 2029 or earlier.