Rapid Progress Projected: German Solar Power Capacity Poised to Reach 100 GW by 2024

Germany continues to ride high on the wave of solar energy adoption. According to projections, in the span of January to August 2024, about 10.2 GW-worth of fresh photovoltaic installations have been added to the national grid. These figures stem from an up-to-date evaluation of data provided by the Federal Network Agency's (BNetzA) Market Master Data Register, analyzed by the International Economic Forum for Renewable Energies (IWR). Given the current status quo by the end of August 2024, about 4.5 million solar installations are in operation across Germany, touting an impressive total capacity of approximately 93.2 GW. Accordingly, and rather commendably, the German federal government exceeded its 2024 solar expansion target.

Projected to Achieve 100 GW Solar Capacity in Germany by End of 2024

"If this trend holds steady to the close of 2024, we're likely to see over a million new solar installations with a capacity exceeding 15,000 MW, just as we did last year," said IWR Head, Norbert Allnoch. He added that, in light of the dynamic progression this year, a total photovoltaic capacity of 100 GW within Germany seems achievable. This outlook is in line with the IWR's forecast and means the government's 2024 expansion target is set to be surpassed ahead of time. The target included a capacity of 88 GW, as outlined in the Renewable Energy Expansion Path (§ 4 EEG 2023). Come July, a new record was set for solar power production.

"Allnoch declared, "While Germany's current solar capacity increase of about 15,000 MW annually might appear substantial, it pales in comparison to China's progress. In fact, in the first seven months of 2024 alone, China commissioned new 123,500 MW solar installations. Therefore, a record annual increase of around 250,000 MW solar power is projected for 2024. Meanwhile, Germany's cumulative solar capacity currently stands at about 93,200 MW, but it took us thirty years to get here."

Renewable Energy Installations Generate 20 Billion kWh of Power

IWR's 2024 forecast for Germany remains unchanged, predicting 15 to a maximum of 20 GW of new on-grid wind and solar power, thanks in part to new offshore wind turbines. The power generated through domestic wind and photovoltaic installations alone in 2024 equates to about 20 billion kWh of electricity. Just to put that into perspective, it would take at least two large nuclear power plants, each with a decade to a decade and a half construction timeframe, to produce the same amount. It's worth noting, however, that nuclear plants can generate around-the-clock power, unlike solar power, which necessitates storage facilities for nighttime usage.

The BNetzA's Market Master Data Register's analysis provides a snapshot as at September 5th, 2024. Given potential revisions in reporting from photovoltaic installations and possible corrections to the plant register trigggered by the BNetzA, retrospective statistical modifications are to be expected. Yet, these potential uncertainties do not influence trend predictions. However, as of now, the Federal Network Agency has yet to release data for August 2024 and only holds records up until July 2024.