European Electricity Prices Rise Amidst Weekend Negative Pricing Trends

Despite brief episodes of negative electricity prices over the weekend, most major European energy markets saw an overall increase in average electricity prices during the second week of May, according to a recent analysis by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

The consultancy reported notable weekly price hikes in key markets including Belgium, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, the Nordic region, and Portugal. Weekly averages generally exceeded €60 ($67.24)/MWh, with Italy leading the pack at €97.25/MWh—the highest among monitored markets.

AleaSoft attributed the upward trajectory to multiple factors: rising weekly prices for natural gas and CO₂ emission allowances, coupled with increased electricity demand across most countries.

However, France and Spain defied the broader trend, recording the week’s lowest average prices at €9.61/MWh and €12.35/MWh, respectively. The decline was driven by a surge in renewable energy generation: France saw a significant uptick in wind power output, while Spain experienced a notable increase in solar energy production.

On Sunday, May 11, several markets witnessed striking negative hourly pricing. The Belgian market hit a multi-year low of -€462.33/MWh, the lowest since June 2019, while Germany (-€250.32/MWh) and the Netherlands (-€350.00/MWh) recorded their lowest hourly prices since July 2023. Spain also set a historic milestone, reaching -€15.00/MWh between 16:00 and 17:00—its lowest hourly price on record.

Daily prices also turned negative in France (-€5.84/MWh) and Belgium (-€9.97/MWh) on May 11, with France’s figure marking its lowest daily price since May 2020.

Looking ahead, AleaSoft forecasts that most markets will maintain similar price levels in the third week of May. However, France and Spain are expected to see price rebounds.

In renewable energy trends, solar production rose week-over-week in Germany, Portugal, and Spain, with Portugal setting a new daily record of 26 GWh on May 6. Conversely, solar output declined in France and Italy. The consultancy predicts continued solar growth in Germany this week, while Italy’s production is forecast to remain on a downward trajectory.